U.S. War Review Finds Fragile Progress in Afghanistan

WASHINGTON—A much-anticipated White House review of the Afghan war finds that "components" of the administration's strategy are working but that gains are fragile because of concerns about insurgent safe havens in Pakistan and the challenge of developing independent Afghan security forces.

The report says the Taliban's momentum has been arrested in much of Afghanistan, but those gains could be reversed.

"Consolidating those gains will require that we make more progress with Pakistan to eliminate sanctuaries for violent extremist networks," according to a summary of the report released by the White House. "Durability also requires continued work with Afghanistan to transfer cleared areas to their security forces."

The White House review of progress in the Afghan war puts off key decisions about the pace of pulling troops out of the country and whether changes in strategy there will be needed.

But the White House made clear it believes progress in Afghanistan has been substantial enough to begin a troop drawdown, as planned, in July. Questions remain about the number of troops that will be withdrawn, and from what parts of the country. While many in the military would like to keep a robust number of troops in Afghanistan, some in the White House want a faster pullout.

Ruters

A German Bundeswehr army soldier from Charlie platoon
of the 2nd Paratroop Company 373 during a mission in
northern Afghanistan on Wednesday.

President Barack Obama mandated the strategy review when he announced a surge of 30,000 additional troops into Afghanistan in December 2009, in what was a defining moment of the president's foreign policy.

In recent weeks, some officials have tried to play down the significance of the review,

saying it wasn't meant to be an opportunity to rewrite strategy.

The report stops short of proposing policy changes. Officials said the full effect of the troop surge has only recently started to be felt and that it would be premature to judge how the campaign will progress.

Much of the review is focused on al Qaeda's central leadership in Pakistan. While the military campaign in Afghanistan is focused almost entirely on defeating the Taliban-led insurgency, the White House has insisted their overall strategy is focused on al Qaeda.

The report says that the al Qaeda's safe haven in Pakistan is "smaller and less secure" than it was a year ago. The report does not say how that might have been achieved, but the Central Intelligence Agency has stepped up dramatically the number of drone attacks it conducts in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

Compared to a September report to Congress, the White House appeared to tone down its criticism of Pakistan, arguing that the U.S. is "laying the foundation for a strategic partnership" even as it argues the only way to make durable gains against al Qaeda is to eliminate the safe havens in the country's tribal regions.

The previous report accused Pakistan of intentionally avoiding confronting al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban in the North Waziristan tribal zone bordering Afghanistan, a finding that drew a hostile response from Islamabad.

Administration officials remain divided on how hard to push Pakistan to take more direct action in North Waziristan, a haven for the Haqqani militant network, which operates in eastern Afghanistan, and in Baluchistan, where the Taliban makes its headquarters.

Devastating floods in Pakistan have pulled the focus of the country's military away toward humanitarian relief, and U.S. officials said they didn't expect the Pakistani military to expand its operations soon.

But a senior defense official said: "For long-term stability, you need to get at the safe havens, and the sooner the better."

The White House does not plan to release the full review, much of which remains classified. But even in the summary document, the administration's nervousness about Afghanistan's ability to provide governance and security is clear.

"We've had progress. The question is: Is it fast enough? Is it sustainable? Will we really be able to transition?" said a senior administration official involved in the deliberations. "You can clear an area of the Taliban, but then what?"

The report emphasizes the military's expanded special operations campaigns, both to attack insurgent leaders and train local village security forces, arguing both initiatives have reduced Taliban influence.

The summary of the report cites "significant development challenges" with Afghan security forces, but provides few specifics.

Officials said the full report contains concerns about the ability of the Afghan army and police to conduct independent operations.

The drafting process drew out lingering divisions within the administration that emerged during Mr. Obama's lengthy 2009 Afghanistan review.

In a meeting on Saturday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, supporters of the troop surge, argued that the current strategy has shown progress, according to an official familiar with the deliberations. But Vice President Joe Biden, who has long pushed for a counterterrorism-focused strategy requiring fewer forces, sounded more skeptical notes.

National Security Adviser Tom Donilon raised questions in meetings about the scope of the mission, asking if the U.S. was trying to do too much.

In the end, the debate was resolved in favor of highlighting military gains, particularly in the south, the official familiar with the deliberations said.

The White House played down any differences among Mr. Obama's advisers. Spokesman Robert Gibbs said Mr. Obama asked for some changes to be made to the draft after reviewing different sections but he didn't specify what those changes were.

The White House said issues raised in the report would be addressed in meetings of the National Security Council and top military leaders. Those meetings will determine the pace of the drawdown and could result in strategy changes.