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Colm McCarthy tells it like it is. He's a respected economist at University College Dublin and although adviser both to the past and present governments, back slapping is not in his repertoire.
RTE's Morning Ireland got the usual dose of McCarthy smelling salts today and it made for depressing listening. A "holding position" and "finger in the dyke", he said. There was no one-shot solution to the crisis and we were nowhere near the end game.
His UCD economist colleague Professor Ray Kinsella was equally downbeat in the Examiner newspaper this morning.
In a column titled "Stumbling towards default", Kinsella explains it's all about market confidence and not really about the cash in the banks which could operate at much lower levels of capital reserve. The breathtaking losses at the Bank of Ireland and other Irish financial institutions will be confirmed by the Central Banks.
"What determines the amount of capital that banks need is the 'mind of the markets'. And what counts here is policy credibility and confidence. The terms of the EU/IMF bailout are not credible. There is no confidence," he said.
"This is reflected in the fact that the costs of insuring against default of Irish debt — which should have fallen sharply in the wake of the EU/IMF bailout — remains at elevated levels. "
Twin track Europe now possible
He went on: "In the absence of decisive assistance from our European partners, Ireland is stumbling towards a default event. Indeed, it is already happening.
"A 'twin track' Europe with Ireland in the outer track is now a very real prospect. The costs and consequences of such an event have already been modelled by authoritative analysts. Irish policy needs to adapt to this prospective reality."
If this were the US the bailout figure would be $2.1 trillion
Bloomberg TV put it more bluntly. The €70bn bailout is equivalent to $2.1 trillion when comparing Irish GDP with the US GDP.
Even Pimco, the world's largest bond investor, says pumping more debt into the banks is flawed and won't have the desired affect – convince investors to pile back into Ireland Inc and allow the banks go back to the market to get the funds to keep credit available for business and ATM machines operating.
Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco's CEO, says the Irish government simply hasn't done its homework and credibility in the banking system won't be restored on the international stage.
"It is a debacle," he told Bloomberg TV.
"The only people doing their fair share right now, are the tax payers of Ireland who are having to go through tremendous austerity and the IMF and the EU that are putting in money
"The creditors most of the creditors so far have not gone through any burden sharing, it is remarkable; it is inadvisable; but it is a political decision that has been taken. It surprises me.
"What they are hoping for is by maintaining the credits intact, that they creditors they are going to rush back in with new money.
"What they haven't read is the history of debt crisis and the history of debt crises is very simple. Whenever you have a debt overhang, whenever you have this big cloud of debt no new creditor will come in in a big way."
The Irish Times this morning gives an equally unvarnished account of the bailout.
"Bondholders escape as €24bn put into banks," is the front page splash.
Inside, economics editor Dan O'Brien says the chance of defaulting on debts increase in the absence of socialising some of the losses.
Its leaderwriter, like Colm McCarthy and Pimco, believes there is more to come.
"What remains unresolved is whether Ireland can afford to meet the cost involved… the wider issue of whether the EU-IMF agreement leaves the Irish economy on a sustainable path remains open to question."
So, this morning, there is a terrible feeling in Ireland that the electorate which was promised a new way, a different way involving debt-burden sharing, has been betrayed and that Frankfurt, not lameduck Ireland, once again has had its way.
RTE's Morning Ireland got the usual dose of McCarthy smelling salts today and it made for depressing listening. A "holding position" and "finger in the dyke", he said. There was no one-shot solution to the crisis and we were nowhere near the end game.
His UCD economist colleague Professor Ray Kinsella was equally downbeat in the Examiner newspaper this morning.
In a column titled "Stumbling towards default", Kinsella explains it's all about market confidence and not really about the cash in the banks which could operate at much lower levels of capital reserve. The breathtaking losses at the Bank of Ireland and other Irish financial institutions will be confirmed by the Central Banks.
"What determines the amount of capital that banks need is the 'mind of the markets'. And what counts here is policy credibility and confidence. The terms of the EU/IMF bailout are not credible. There is no confidence," he said.
"This is reflected in the fact that the costs of insuring against default of Irish debt — which should have fallen sharply in the wake of the EU/IMF bailout — remains at elevated levels. "
Twin track Europe now possible
He went on: "In the absence of decisive assistance from our European partners, Ireland is stumbling towards a default event. Indeed, it is already happening.
"A 'twin track' Europe with Ireland in the outer track is now a very real prospect. The costs and consequences of such an event have already been modelled by authoritative analysts. Irish policy needs to adapt to this prospective reality."
If this were the US the bailout figure would be $2.1 trillion
Bloomberg TV put it more bluntly. The €70bn bailout is equivalent to $2.1 trillion when comparing Irish GDP with the US GDP.
Even Pimco, the world's largest bond investor, says pumping more debt into the banks is flawed and won't have the desired affect – convince investors to pile back into Ireland Inc and allow the banks go back to the market to get the funds to keep credit available for business and ATM machines operating.
Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco's CEO, says the Irish government simply hasn't done its homework and credibility in the banking system won't be restored on the international stage.
"It is a debacle," he told Bloomberg TV.
"The only people doing their fair share right now, are the tax payers of Ireland who are having to go through tremendous austerity and the IMF and the EU that are putting in money
"The creditors most of the creditors so far have not gone through any burden sharing, it is remarkable; it is inadvisable; but it is a political decision that has been taken. It surprises me.
"What they are hoping for is by maintaining the credits intact, that they creditors they are going to rush back in with new money.
"What they haven't read is the history of debt crisis and the history of debt crises is very simple. Whenever you have a debt overhang, whenever you have this big cloud of debt no new creditor will come in in a big way."
The Irish Times this morning gives an equally unvarnished account of the bailout.
"Bondholders escape as €24bn put into banks," is the front page splash.
Inside, economics editor Dan O'Brien says the chance of defaulting on debts increase in the absence of socialising some of the losses.
Its leaderwriter, like Colm McCarthy and Pimco, believes there is more to come.
"What remains unresolved is whether Ireland can afford to meet the cost involved… the wider issue of whether the EU-IMF agreement leaves the Irish economy on a sustainable path remains open to question."
So, this morning, there is a terrible feeling in Ireland that the electorate which was promised a new way, a different way involving debt-burden sharing, has been betrayed and that Frankfurt, not lameduck Ireland, once again has had its way.
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